Why Apple may stick with AT&T

The tech question I get asked the most these days is when will Apple allow the iPhone to move to Verizon? So many people are locked into a Verizon contract and want the iPhone but, because of that exclusive Apple deal with AT&T, are stuck with an unrequited desire.

That desire has been stoked in recent days by lots of rumors that when the exclusive deal expires in the summer of 2010, Apple may open it up to other carriers.

Financially, of course, it makes sense and has lots of Apple appeal. Verizon has around 90 million U.S. subscribers. I don’t know how many would opt for the iPhone but I’m betting at least as many who now have an iPhone on AT&T (which has about 80 million subscribers).

But technically, it’s another matter. And that’s where the sticking point is.

Verizon’s current network is incompatible with the iPhone. The chip maker Apple uses does not make chips that work on the Verizon network. Apple could, of course, switch or add another chip maker. That’s the hope. But as Glenn Fleishman points out in this terrific background piece for Tidbits, there are compelling reasons why that may not happen.

It’s all rather complicated but, essentially, it boils down to the changing technology and formats that are involved in the worldwide wireless industry and the fact that Verizon’s format would require a US-centric version of the iPhone, while the rest of the world would work with other formats.

In other words, the landscape is changing. And Apple, I’M thinkin, just isn’t ready right now to bring on a new chip maker until it sees where the techno-dust settles in wireless.

Those Verizon users waiting for an iPhone may have a very long wait on their hands.